-important electoral map at this moment, president obama can count on 243 electoral votes, just 27 shy of the 270 needed to win. romney meanwhile can bank on 191, that leaves 104 votes up for grabs in just eight states, florida, nevada, colorado, wisconsin, ohio, virginia, north carolina, and new hampshire. to win romney would need to win a majority of those battlegrounds and according to recent opinion polls in those states the president is leading or statistically tied with romney, one reason why nate silver's trustee ma mathematical models are predicting november 6th could be a good night for team op puts the president's chances of winning at 86% and mitt romney's a meager 14%. insert romney frowny face here. it is really this buttoned up? i want to go deep into the nate silver mind chamber on this block. it is -- i mean that's a pretty big gap there, 86 to 14. let's speak electorally here. >> sure. >> you're pegging obama with 320.1 electoral votes, up nearly 11 in the last couple weeks or last week, romney at 217.9. 320 is a lot of electoral votes. that would be i think a mandate.
walker winning the recall, the same voters majority said i want to vote for obama anyway. and so wisconsin, he won it by 14 or 15 points some large margin in 2008. you can have the tide shift against you and have a big cushion there. >> wisconsin is this wonderful state, the state of robert, the great populist, joe mccarthy, not to draw connections between paul ryan and joe mccarthy and mitt romney. it was the recall that people didn't understand or feel was the right expression of protest against scott walker but the great occupation of the state house in support of workers, teachers, nurses, police, of wisconsin i think is going to play a role in this election where people came out to support a different kind of politics. >> i think we're reminding of the fairness of the american electorate, the fact they have more nuanced views than we ascribe them as having. in your book "the signal and the noise" you talk about the difference between hedgehogs, people who know one big thing and foxes, people who are more nuanced and know many things. i'm probably a hedge hog just declaring t
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